16th July 2018
It is getting hot
It was a week with two faces – strong economic data across the developed world on the one side and disruptive political rhetoric on the other. Donald Trump’s administration imposed tariffs of 25% on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports and China retaliated in kind. At these volumes, the tariffs are currently not expected to have materially negative consequences to the wider economy. But there is a widespread fear that they are only the opening salvo to a tit-for-tat trade war that would have no winners.
Why we should expect the Bank of England to raise rates
Bank of England governor Mark Carney was upbeat about the UK economy this week. At a speech in Newcastle on Thursday, the BoE chief said that “the incoming data have given me greater confidence that the softness of U.K. activity in the first quarter was largely due to the weather, not the economic climate,”
2018 – half way point reflections
As we have passed the halfway point of 2018, it is worth reviewing how capital markets have fared thus far, how our predictions from last December held up against reality and what the second half of the year may have in store for us.
India: No longer the darling of emerging markets?
It’s been a tough year so far for India. As with many other emerging markets (EMs), the great capital rotation into the US – brought about by strong US growth, tightening monetary policy and a strong dollar – has hurt them. It’s put downward pressure on India’s Rupee and left the economy short of vital financing, a reflection of India’s own problems, not just of EMs as a whole
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