11th September 2018
Interesting times ahead
It has been one of those weeks, where so much news comes across our desks that I do not quite know where to start and where to finish, but we can be sure not to get bored in the near term.
After all the Brexit drama of the past weeks, there is some evidence emerging that our rationally argued view that contrary to all the recent talk, next year’s formal Brexit, will be just that.
Sterling went for a ride on Wednesday. After concerns over the lack of Brexit progress turned investors sour on the currency in the morning, a report containing much needed good news precipitated an almost-immediate 1.2% jump against the dollar. That bounce left sterling up 0.96% overall on the day.
After a very synchronised global upswing in 2017, 2018 has seen significant changes in the regional dynamics of the global economy. Most of the world’s economies continued to expand at steady pace while the US has soared ahead, with the consequently strong US dollar and tightening monetary conditions (even more than the Fed’s reversal of QE) causing serious troubles for Emerging Markets (EMs).
The Trump Risk
Another week, another controversy for Donald Trump (or a few, to be precise). First, veteran Watergate journalist Bob Woodward – whose reporting helped bring down President Nixon – released a book about Trump’s presidency that’s just about as damning as such a book could be. Then, an anonymous White House official wrote an op-ed for the New York Times claiming that members of the administration are working to “frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.”
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