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The Cambridge Weekly – 22 November 2021

 

Dollar strength and divergence caps a dull week for investors

Despite the negative news flow, be it COVID or politics, UK consumers are proving their resilience once again, with both October retail demand and domestic consumer sentiment pointing up. Perhaps the buoyant jobs market is encouraging the UK public to be less concerned about inflationary pressures eating into their disposable incomes than some economists would expect, or it is equally possible that higher energy and food prices have not quite hit home yet.

 

Low vaccination rates point to ‘lower for longer’ ECB interest rates

Could we be headed for another bleak COVID-wrecked winter? That certainly looks the direction of travel in continental Europe. Rising case numbers in Germany and Switzerland, while Austria imposed another full national lockdown have meant that Europe is once again considered the COVID epicentre, leading to fears that the “fourth wave” will cause considerable damage both to public health and the economy.

 

Will banks be the comeback stars of 2022?

Inflation continues to dominate headlines, and has left market participants debating a plethora of topics, including the nature of ‘transitory’ or ‘structural/permanent’ inflationary pressures, what it means for the subsequent size and speed of interest rate increases, how far bond yields can continue to rise, and whether yields are reflecting the potential for central bank policy error.

Read the full commentary here

 

 

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